All trades are made public in my free Telegram channel. I also share in depth analysis, trading tips and live thoughts and feelings as I trade.
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Take Aways for February
- My winners were overwhelmingly ETH shorts and ALTS I entered at range support and held through breakouts. Look for more of these setups.
- Revert back to less trades per month. Be more selective
- Stick to Macro strategy
February was a great month in the crypto market and I capitalized on it. I accomplished higher returns on less trades which was my main goal for the month coming off of a January where I took more trades than necessary. Bitcoin along with ETH and the other majors all had great runs which is where a majority of my profits came from. I stuck to my macro strategy of mostly being in large caps since we were in stage 1 of the market cycle. Im now shifting my allocation to mostly Mid cap ALTS as BTC and ETH are moving sideways.
Take aways for March
-1. Don't be greedy! Close trades at logical high time frame resistance, especially after 3 drives.
-I had the chance to exit at the top of the BTC/ETH/BCH move and didn't because I was waiting for a distribution range to form and price to wick higher. I took partial profits and my stops took the rest so I gave back 5-7% on each of those positions.
2. Dont' trade majors in chop ranges, wait for a 4HR close as confirmation outside of the range
- Im doing better on this but still had 3 trades in February that I had no business taking. Id like to get this to 0.
3. Don't buy falling knives when entering ALT retests. Wait for price to prove support will hold.
-I had the right idea on ARK and APPC but entered too early and was stopped out.
March was a wild month with Alts across the board pumping like crazy. While I’m happy with the results, I know I didn’t manage the excitement as well as I could have. I could have obtained the same results or better by focusing on higher time frames and sticking with the setups that look best. On the positive side, I noticed a strong improvement in my ability to identify when certain Alts were likely to break out or break down and act on those signals with less hesitation.
Take aways for April
- Take less trades
- Start evaluation of every trade looking at the weekly chart (monthly if price history is reasonable) to focus on the best setups
- No entry or exit of trades before NY open
I’ve noticed my worst trade decisions are made between when I wake up and before NY open
The market provided in April with the Bitcoin breakout from 4100. I had more Alt exposure than I should have but fortunately they were large caps and recovered quickly vs BTC. I more than doubled my USD account value so far this year but took a small BTC hit that I recovered through the remainder of the month. I picked some winners and entered with great timing and let them ride (BAT, EOS and NEO). Overall a good month but I’m still taking more trades than I think I need to. The time (and money) spent over trading could be better used elsewhere.
Take aways for May
- Don’t underestimate Bitcoin’s ability to pump and bleed out Alts
- I don’t always need to be in a position
- Look for more level to level bounce plays with clear PA (Like ENJ)